Positive Outlook for Natural Diamonds as Market Stabilises

九月 24, 2024

by Regan Luis

“The natural diamond market is showing signs of resilience and recovery as prices begin to stabilise and inventory reaches manageable levels.

The natural diamond market is experiencing a positive shift, characterised by price stabilisation and a growing sense of optimism. The industry’s resilience is evident in the recent decline of rough diamond imports relative to polished diamond exports, indicating a healthier market balance. As the Holiday season approaches, global retailers are expected to increase their orders for natural diamonds, further stimulating demand and contributing to market stability as inventory overhang is cleared.

The midstream sector is also playing a crucial role in stabilising the market by managing inventory levels and avoiding excessive stockpiling. This responsible behaviour is resulting in a more balanced and sustainable market environment.

In a recent letter to the trade, Vipul Shah, Chairman, GJEPC, had said, “After a post-pandemic surge in natural diamond demand that led to record-high prices, we’ve faced a challenging correction period with prices correcting at the wholesale level over the last 18 months as the abnormal surge we witnessed subsided. Now, the industry is at a turning point, driven by several positive dynamics. We urge everyone in the industry to recognise the clear signs of recovery and price stability moving forward.”

Ajesh Mehta, Convener, Diamond Panel, GJEPC, explained, “In August this year, we have seen a significant shift with rough imports being much lower and polished diamond exports having gone up 14% compared to the previous month. The midstream is recalibrating the supply/demand dynamic, which manufacturers have managed by reducing production over the past six months. With global demand shrinking, we have had to balance supply carefully to maintain equilibrium.

“On the positive side, polished diamond prices are now stabilising, and we are seeing some shortages in certain segments, especially pointers and smaller goods. As we head into the festive season, with Diwali and Christmas around the corner, we expect this to rebalance pricing. The stakeholders including GJEPC, miners and retailers are joining forces to promote the product and raise demand. Global retailers are ready to buy, but they want stable polished prices before they commit. The confidence is slowly coming back, and the midstream is playing a more responsible role by controlling supply and avoiding excessive stockpiling.

“A promising indicator is that India is showing well with strong retailer demand at domestic exhibitions like IIJS. All these factors are coming together, and I believe we’re heading towards a more balanced market in the coming months.”

Industry Outlook

Echoing this optimism, Russell Mehta, Co-opted Member, Diamond Panel, GJEPC, said, “In hindsight last year’s self-imposed rough import ban created a false sense of floor in the market, and we (diamond manufacturers) overreacted by purchasing large quantities of rough diamonds early in the year. Unfortunately, the demand continued to decelerate and hence the prices continued to erode over time this year also.  However, for the first time this year, as per the latest data, in August we saw more polished exports over rough import.

“As self-disciplined import restrictions and production limits continue, combined with extended holidays and the upcoming long Diwali break, we’ll see fewer rough diamond imports moving forward. However, exports are expected to remain steady during the September to November period. With inventories being managed in an orderly manner and less new inventory coming in, we’ll see positive signs of a price floor, with the possibility of prices firming up in the new year if the holiday season in America remains reasonable.

“If Indian demand remains strong and the American Christmas season holds steady, as suggested by the Tenoris report and feedback from retailers, the market should stabilise. With declining inventory levels and reduced polishing activity, we expect some floor in place for prices. If the season goes well, we anticipate price increases in the Q1 of 2025, based on the trend observed in August where rough imports fell, and polished exports rose for the first time this year.”

In the coming months, stakeholders will be closely monitoring the global economic environment, especially in key markets like the US, China, and the EU, which play a crucial role in the demand for diamonds.

Green Shoots

In addition to India’s ongoing presence in traditional markets, the growth of cut and polished diamond (CPD) exports in emerging markets has been a significant development in recent years. Several countries have seen remarkable increases in their imports of Indian diamonds, demonstrating the industry’s adaptability and ability to penetrate new regions.

India’s exports to Switzerland have seen impressive growth, rising from $179.52 million in 2019-20 to $437.31 million in 2023-24, representing a 19.49% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the past five years​. This growth has been driven by Switzerland’s role as a global hub for luxury jewellery and watches, where demand for high-quality diamonds remains strong.

Oman, traditionally not a significant market for Indian diamonds, has emerged as a new player with remarkable growth, showing an 868.24% increase in exports over the same period. The rise from negligible amounts in 2019-20 to $29.46 million in 2023-24 highlights the increasing interest in the Middle Eastern market for high-quality diamonds​. Similarly, Armenia has also seen substantial growth, with exports climbing from $5.53 million to $27.83 million during this period, achieving a 38.13% CAGR​.

India’s CPD exports to Italy have also surged, with the market growing from $22.77 million in 2019-20 to $53.47 million in 2023-24, a notable 18.62% CAGR. This can be attributed to Italy’s long-standing tradition in high-end fashion and jewellery, where demand for unique, finely crafted diamonds remains high​.

Other markets such as Saudi Arabia and Sri Lanka have demonstrated consistent growth, with Saudi Arabia recording a 16.01% CAGR and Sri Lanka showing a 20.94% CAGR over the past five years​. This expansion in markets that were previously underdeveloped for Indian CPD exports reflects a broader diversification strategy, aimed at mitigating risks associated with reliance on traditional markets like the US and Europe.

While France and the United Kingdom remain important markets, with exports to the UK reaching $163.45 million in 2023-24, their growth has been more moderate compared to emerging regions. France saw a 16.12% CAGR, while the UK recorded a more modest 8.69% increase​.”

Source: www.gjepc.org